Update [20th October]: Finally, we got a positive close yesterday. Even though DXY didn’t close position day before yesterday, our level for minor wave iii remains in same zone (~115.700) since wave ii didn’t move much from when we estimated the size of wave iii. Wave iii would likely put equities and other asset classes in pressure now.
Update [19th October]: Okay, so we did not close positive yesterday. As discussed, that means minor wave ii is still forming. Rest all remains the same. We’ll calculate minor wave iii target when we get a positive daily close.
Dollar Index seem to be moving nicely as per EW counts mentioned in previous posts. We have done a 1-2-1-2 and now in wave 3. Within this wave 3, we have done minor wave i and are currently in wave ii down. Wave ii have already done more than 50% retracement of wave i move and today’s candle look green so far. It it manages to close positive then we can assume minor wave iii up has started.
Assuming wave ii has made its bottom at today’s candle low at 111.773, wave iii could go till 115.700 as per wave equality principle (i = iii in this case). Minor wave iii should be followed by minor wave iv and finally minor wave v which will complete wave 3 advance. Note that this is based on assumption that wave ii has bottomed at today’s low. If we don’t close positive today then we’ll wait for a positive close to see where wave ii bottoms and then will re-calculate wave iii levels.
Now, this is wave 3 we’re talking about and since there has been extensions (1-2-1-2), we should see further extensions, i.e. (3-4-3-4), followed by 5th wave. So, overall there is still a long way up to go.
If you noticed, I switched to dark theme for this post and will continue with dark theme in future posts as well. Looks cooler than light theme 🙂
Its so difficult to understand how you count the waves and where they start or end. Can you do a tutorial on elliott waves so people like me can understand how to use it?
Yeah, Elliott waves can seem a bit overwhelming at first. I plan to write some tutorial posts in near future but for now, you can refer to the link below to get basic concepts of Elliott waves.
https://www.elliottwave.com/investing/using-elliott-waves-as-simple-as-abc