From the December 2018 lows around 3k, BTC rose in 5 waves impulse advance followed by complex correction W-X-Y-X-Z. Right now, we seem to be in last leg (Z) which so far is looking like a zigzag (a-b-c). Legs a and b of Z seem to be done and we are now in last wave c of Z down which should complete Z following which we can expect the bull market to resume.
Now the question is how much deeper down below BTC can go. At the minimum, we should expect 16600/16700 as per a=c equality but c can be larger so I won’t rule out a 1.618% extension to 12500 or thereabout.
Alternatively, what we are thinking as a-b-c in Z could be just i-ii-iii-iv-v of a and then there would be b followed by another i-ii-iii-iv-v (wave c) down. If that happens then we’re looking at sub 10K levels. Looks bleak but its a definite possibility.
One of the two views should play out and either way, we’ll looking at considerable downside from current levels. Once we have a bottom of Z, we can reasonable estimate the size of next major leg up.
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