Here is the monthly chart of EURUSD. From October 2008 high around 1.6, we have seen EURUSD fall in 5 waves down to 1.034 level in Jan/Feb 2017, followed by ABC correction which saw a high of around 1.25 in February/March 2018.
Now, we seem to have started a fresh 5 leg impulse down after breaking down from ABC triangle. As of now, I can count clear 9 legs down which are sufficient for mark wave 1 down complete. However, it can further extend and we might see 13 legs so too early to call it near term bottom before we see a bounce in wave 2. First confirmation would be a positive monthly close in this month, i.e. October. Afterwards, we’ll see how it develops.
But you can see that it’s just the first leg down and there is a lot more downside coming up in next few years, unless something drastically changes. I don’t believe in following fundamentals since charts reflect everything, including fundamentals. If the chart shows me something different, I’ll change my view accordingly. For now, chart shows long term downside though we should get a bounce in wave 2 once wave 1 is complete.
