Elliott waves works best on longer timeframes in my experience. Here you can find almost textbook clean EW counts in NSE:BPCL weekly chart.
From the October low around 288 last year, BPCL has risen in clean 5 waves impulse, marked as I, followed by a-b-c retracement in wave II. Now, we seen to be in wave III. Minor waves i and ii of III seem complete as the stock took out the high of minor wave i at this week’s close today. We can assume that now we are in minor wave iii of III which is typically the largest and fastest as well.
If we go by wave equality principle, size of wave I give us a target of around 384. However, wave III of larger degrees are known to extend to 1.618 or even 2.618 times of previous impulse so a target of around 430 (1.618 times) should be very much possible.
On the risk side, we need to monitor and see that the retracement in minor wave iv should not overlap with minor wave i high of 361.60. Now this is not all that bad as this might mean that wave III is extending and will give us more than equality target. But on the downside, it might also mean that the rise becomes 3 waves (corrective). Current price around 365 gives a very decent risk-reward if we take breach of minor wave i high as risk.
Disclaimer: Purpose of this post is to educate on technical analysis methodologies and not giving trading/investing advice.
